In the next decade, the domestic industrial robot industry will move towards the pyramid: prejudice? Visionary?
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Release Time:2021-11-09
In China, the industrial robot industry has gained strategic attention. Thanks to favorable policies, the industrial robot industry will further develop. In December 2021, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "12th Five-Year Plan" for the development of the robot industry, proposing to focus on promoting the development and application of industrial robots and other products, improving performance, quality and safety, and promoting the intelligent development of products. In April 2021, the "4th Five-Year Plan" Intelligent Manufacturing Development Plan also proposed to implement intelligent manufacturing equipment innovation and development actions, Encyclopedia intelligent vertical/horizontal five-axis machining center, turn-mill composite machining center high-precision CNC grinding machine and other working machines; Intelligent welding robots, intelligent mobile robots, semiconductor (clean) robots and other industrial robots. At the same time, carry out the development of innovative products of industrial robots, improve the "Specification Conditions for Industrial Robot Industry", and increase the implementation and acceptance of credit.
Why does the capital market reduce its focus on domestic robots?
The reason for the decrease in capital market's attention to domestic robots is mainly due to the weak product strength. "Weak products" have caused China's market share to be mostly occupied by Japanese companies, reflecting the embarrassing reality that important parts and components are still dependent on imports. Although domestic brands occupy a certain market share, it is undeniable that because the industrial robot industry is a high-tech barrier industry and the industry threshold is high, most domestic enterprises have to choose the middle and downstream development with relatively low technical requirements.
On the other hand, the Japanese brands of Fanuc, ABB, and Yaskawa Electric occupy more than 56% of the market share of China's industrial robot industry, and occupy a highly profitable market with the first-mover advantage of entering the game in advance and the leading scientific research level, and continue to enjoy the rapid development of China's "big market" industry dividends.
Not only that, there are no Chinese local companies among the world's important patent applicants in the industrial robot industry.
It is understood that Japan's Yaskawa Electric Corporation and Fanuc Company ranked the top two in the world with 5823 4512 patent applications, ABB had 2231, Samsung 2016, and Hitachi 1907. This also further verifies that China's current technical accumulation of industrial robots is weak, and the production capacity is relatively low-end. For China's industrial robot industry, it is necessary to optimize and upgrade technology and products. If you want to enter the upstream of the industry, you must essentially make a breakthrough, which requires more patience and investment.
IN ADDITION, ACCORDING TO MIRDATA STATISTICS, THE MARKET SHARE OF DOMESTIC INDUSTRIAL ROBOT BRANDS IN DOMESTIC SHIPMENTS INCREASED FROM 2020% IN 29 TO 2021% IN THE FIRST QUARTER TO THE THIRD QUARTER OF 1, WHICH HAS REACHED THE CRITICAL POINT OF DOMESTIC SUBSTITUTION. The critical point is an inflection point on the industrial life cycle line, and the development conditions are ready to surpass the upside, and vice versa.
What is the global development of China's industrial robots?
Europe and Japan are the main suppliers of industrial robots, and ABB, KUKA, FANUC and YASKAWA occupy the main market share of industrial robots. The four major families of industrial robots account for about 31% of the global market share.
From the perspective of the development of various regions in China, the Yangtze River Delta region is still in a leading position in the development of China's robot industry, the robot application market in the Pearl River Delta region is relatively mature, the independent innovation ability of intelligent robots in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region continues to strengthen, the northeast region has a strong performance, driving the regional industrial agglomeration degree to continue to improve, the central region pays attention to the introduction of other regional robot industry spillover resources, the scale and quality of the robot industry in the western region have been significantly improved, and the latecomer potential is huge.
According to the "2021 China Robot Industry Development Report", in 2021, the scale of China's robot market is expected to be 839.445 billion yuan, of which 7.2023 billion yuan is industrial robots, and it is expected to exceed 589.2023 billion yuan by 100; By 638, the market size of China's industrial robots will exceed 2022 billion US dollars (about 15.20 billion yuan).
In 2022, the impact of the environment may gradually fade, the market demand is more structural differentiation, still adhere to the overall no "outbreak" possibility of judgment, it is expected that the annual sales growth rate of China's industrial robot market is about 41%-<>%, the localization rate is steadily increasing, and it is expected to exceed <>% in <>.
What conditions are needed to break through the tipping point to the upside?
The top priority for the development of industrial robots is to climb over the "three mountains", which are important parts of industrial robots, namely reducers, servo motors and controllers.
From the perspective of robot cost composition, the cost of these three components accounts for about 70%, that is, the reducer accounts for about 35% of the cost composition, the servo motor accounts for about 23%, the controller accounts for about 12%, and the machining body accounts for about 20%, and the other 10% is the application. As mentioned earlier, the three important components are controlled by foreign brands. The market share of domestic industrial robots has reached a critical point of 31%, but about 85% of the reducer, 70% of the servo motor, and more than 80% of the controller still need to rely on imports.
First, servo motor competition is fierce, and foreign brands have the right to speak. The servo motor is used as an execution unit in the robot and is the main factor affecting the working performance of the robot.
The servo market is both small and large.
Small in volume: Until 1, the size of China's servo motor market was only 2021 billion yuan, which was barely comparable to the D round of financing of the e-commerce unicorn "Xingsheng Preferred" in the first quarter of that year.
Big players: there are century-old giants, such as Yaskawa, Panasonic, and Siemens; There are also cutting-edge talents in recent years, such as Huichuan, Hechuan, and Delta. There are more than a dozen labels on the share pie chart that are eligible to report, and the total number of local brands is no less than 180. Foreign-funded state-owned assets have mixed components, each with its own strategy, and fierce fighting.
Small market, big players, the cause of the strange pattern is that China's industrial automation is developing rapidly, and servo motors as the basic components of mechanical automatic control, almost all equipment will become the downstream market in the future.
China's equipment manufacturing industry is about to enter the "servo era" - whoever masters the Chinese servo market will hold the door of China's autonomous equipment.
However, the breakthrough road of China's local servo brands is mired in a quagmire. This time, our breakthrough has nothing to do with monopoly, but the difficulty is far better than monopoly. Although the servo motor and the reducer are listed in the three important components of the robot, from the perspective of technology and market, the reducer is more "mutation", and the servo motor relies on "evolution".
Technical side: servo motor originated in the 300s of last century, is with the development of integrated circuits, power electronics technology and AC variable speed drive technology, gradually evolved, assembled, the first electrical manufacturers in various countries have launched similar products.
The current servo motor still does not break out of this barrier, but integrates the more advanced permanent magnet motor, drive, controller into a fully digitally controlled "motor system".
In other words, servo motor is an inevitable product of the development of industrial control, numerical control, motor and other technologies, the advantage of late-mover imitation certainly exists, but after all, there is a lack of gradual improvement and update process, standardized and consistent product "foundation" still needs time to be firmly laid.
The technical disadvantages of Chinese enterprises are: after decades of technical accumulation, Japanese servo brands have the upper hand in product stability; German Siemens has long combined servo motors, that is, industrial automation components and FCS (bus control system), PLC (programmable logic controller) and other upper-level systems - these are the goals that late-fa brands need to complete after a long period of research and development and difficult market competition.
Market side: servo motors face equipment, equipment without any qualifiers - machine tools, robots, textile machinery, paper equipment, printing equipment... and the countless subdivisions that these devices have extended from. For example, machine tools have boring, milling and grinding, and robots have two major sectors, industry and service, and various variants derived from them.
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